Follow-up · Browns 27, Steelers 24
We took the under. He had 181 yards by halftime.
We said Pittsburgh would sack Deshaun Watson at least three times and hold him under 187.5 passing yards. He was sacked twice, threw for 268 and beat the Steelers for the first time. Both calls missed.
Browns 27, Steelers 24
Grading the preview: Nine sacks in three weeks. Now Pittsburgh's rush comes to Cleveland.
The calls, graded
- MissPittsburgh sacks Deshaun Watson at least three times.Pittsburgh sacked Watson twice, for 8 yards: one by Payton Wilson, one by T.J. Watt.
- MissWatson throws for fewer than 187.5 yards.Watson threw for 268 yards (24 of 33), 80.5 over the 187.5 line. He had 181 by halftime.
The result
Cleveland beat Pittsburgh 27-24 on Thursday night. Andre Szmyt kicked a career-long 56-yard field goal with 10 seconds left. The Browns are 3-1 for the first time since 2001.
The Browns led 21-7 late in the first half. The Steelers tied it at 24 when Aaron Rodgers hit Pat Freiermuth for a 3-yard touchdown inside the final two minutes and then sneaked in the 2-point conversion. Watson answered by going 4 of 5 for 46 yards on the winning drive. It was his third straight week leading a go-ahead drive in the fourth quarter.
The big miss: passing yards
We took the under on 187.5. Watson passed 181 in the first half alone, which the AP recap called his most since Houston traded him to Cleveland in 2022. He finished 24 of 33 for 268 yards, one touchdown and one interception. The biggest play was a 60-yard completion to Denzel Boston that set up a touchdown in the second quarter.
This was not only a bet against the sportsbooks. XOCP projected Watson for 219 yards, and we took the under on that too. Our own number was the closer of the two, and it was still 49 yards short.
Miss: the sacks
We said the Steelers would get to Watson at least three times, behind a line missing its center, Elgton Jenkins, and guard Teven Jenkins. They got him twice: Payton Wilson once and T.J. Watt once. One of the sacks came on the winning drive, with 19 seconds left. It cost 4 yards and the kick went through anyway.
The pass rush did win the night, just from the other side. Cleveland sacked Rodgers five times and hit him 10 times. “I wouldn't say it was our cleanest game all the way around,” Rodgers said. “They were getting after us on some of the long yardage stuff that we weren't winning a bunch.”
The case against us was right
The preview printed the argument against our calls: Mary Kay Cabot's count of Cleveland's Thursday night record, and Watson's 0-3 record against Pittsburgh that he had to snap. The record held and the streak broke. Cleveland has now won eight straight Thursday night games, which the AP recap calls the longest active streak in the league. Four of them have come against the Steelers.
“Happy for Deshaun. Not happy about the sack there at the end, but three straight fourth-quarter comebacks really cool for him and our team,” Browns coach Todd Monken said.
What we are changing
Our own preview said Watson had cleared 187.5 in two of his three games. We took the under because of the one game where he didn't, the most recent one. That is reading a trend into a single game. It also meant betting against the sportsbooks and our own projection at the same time.
From now on, a call that goes against both the line and XOCP's projection has to say so in its claim, not just in the body. The reader should know before the game when we are on our own.
