XOCP · Sports stories
Stories
Short films and the reporting behind them. Every fact is sourced, every photo is licensed and credited.
Film · 54.37sNFL · Dallas Cowboys
The money is chasing an undrafted rookie. Let it.
Since Monday the line has dropped from Dallas by 10 to Dallas by 8, and no injury news did it. Our projection has Dallas by 7.8, so we're with the number: Dallas wins, for three reasons that can each go wrong on their own.
NFL · Chicago Bears
Bears by 11. Both our turnover calls went the other way.
We picked Chicago to win, cover 3.5 and beat the Jets on turnovers, starting with Geno Smith's first interception of the year. The Bears won by 11 and covered. They also lost the turnover battle 2-0, and Smith never threw a pick.
NFL · Jacksonville Jaguars
We went against Vegas and our own model. Four for four.
We took Jacksonville when the sportsbooks and our own projection both had Cincinnati. The Jaguars won 22-17 and all four calls hit, one of them with nothing to spare.
NFL · Detroit Lions
We said Carolina ran out of corners. Detroit ran out of stops.
We picked Detroit to win by 4 or more against a Panthers secondary missing both starting corners. Carolina won 32-26, Goff threw one touchdown, and only our sack call landed. One hit, three misses.
Film · 44.14sNFL · Jacksonville Jaguars
Everyone's picking the Bengals. Big mistake.
Vegas has Cincinnati by 2.5, and so does our own model. We're taking Jacksonville anyway: same 2-1 record, but the Jaguars are plus 46 and allow 12 points a game.
NFL · Cleveland Browns
We took the under. He had 181 yards by halftime.
We said Pittsburgh would sack Deshaun Watson at least three times and hold him under 187.5 passing yards. He was sacked twice, threw for 268 and beat the Steelers for the first time. Both calls missed.
Film · 43.9sNFL · Chicago Bears
Vegas just knocked 5 points off the Bears. Nobody will say why.
Chicago opened as an 8.5-point favorite and sits at 3.5, with Tyson Bagent expected to start at quarterback. We still pick the Bears, and so does our own model: the Jets have no interceptions all season.
NFL · Cleveland Browns
Mason Graham was gone in the first quarter. The Browns sacked Rodgers five times anyway.
We said Graham would get at least half a sack against Aaron Rodgers. He hurt his knee in the first quarter and never came back. The call misses, and our headline was wrong in a different way: Cleveland's pass rush did not depend on him.
Film · 44.5sNFL · Detroit Lions
Carolina's secondary is gone. Sunday night could get ugly.
Both of Carolina's starting corners went on injured reserve this week, and Jared Goff has 8 touchdowns and no interceptions. We pick Detroit, with Vegas and our own model.
Film · 41sNFL · Cleveland Browns
Half a sack as a rookie. Four in three games now. Mason Graham is the Browns' pass rush.
Cleveland traded away the NFL's single-season sack leader in June, and the rush didn't leave with him. We say the second-year tackle gets to Aaron Rodgers on Thursday night.
Film · 46sNFL · Cleveland Browns
Nine sacks in three weeks. Now Pittsburgh's rush comes to Cleveland.
Deshaun Watson has been sacked nine times this season and has never beaten the Steelers. We say Pittsburgh gets to him at least three times on Thursday night and holds him under the betting line.
NFL · Chicago Bears
He carried it anyway
We said Case Keenum would not have to carry the Bears. The backs ran for 3.7 a carry and Keenum accounted for three touchdowns. Two of our three reasons held. The backfield did not.
Film · 46sNFL · Chicago Bears
The journeyman gets the keys
Caleb Williams is hurt, Tyson Bagent is barely back, and a 38-year-old on his eighth team starts on Monday night. Two reasons that matters less than you think.