We said a field goal or less. Detroit won by four.

The miss: the margin was four

Our preview said the game would be decided by 3 points or fewer. Lions 19, Vikings 15. Miss, by one point.

Our reason was half right. Minnesota's pass defense did squeeze Detroit's passing game: Jared Goff went 18 of 25 for 176 yards and threw his first interception of the season. But Detroit ran for 230 yards, 164 of them in the second half, and Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 153. We said the game would get small. Detroit's run game made it just big enough. The books had Detroit by 3.5, and they were right by half a point.

The pick: Detroit wins. Hit.

The pick followed the XOCP projection, which had Detroit by 0.7. Goff threw the go-ahead touchdown to Jameson Williams with 4:35 left, after Minnesota had taken a 15-12 lead. Minnesota came in unbeaten; this was its first loss.

Reason 2: Minnesota under 200 passing yards. Hit.

Minnesota threw for 185 net yards. Kyler Murray went 17 of 29 for 210 and was sacked three times for 25 yards. Hit, for our reason: a pass rush shortening throws against an offense that already struggled to throw.

Reason 3: Detroit converts 40% of third downs. Miss.

Detroit converted 5 of 13, 38.5%. Miss, by less than one conversion.

Here the reasoning held up better than the number. We said Detroit would get there with shorter third downs from the run game, and the run game showed up. We also said that if Detroit fell short of 40%, expect a Vikings win. Detroit fell short and won, because it ran for 230 and did not need third downs.

The tally

Two hits, two misses. Both misses came down to a single play: one point on the margin, one conversion on third down. The pick and Reason 2 landed for the reasons we gave. We underrated Detroit's run game against a defense allowing fewer than 100 rushing yards a game.