Follow-up · Raiders 38, Jets 33
We said Braelon Allen would stay under 100. He ran for 147, and the Jets lost anyway.
Three of our four calls hit, including the Raiders as underdogs. The miss was the one we called the case against us, and we were wrong about what it would mean.
Against Vegas
Vegas favorsNYJ -1.5
Our pickThe Raiders beat the Jets.
Opened NYJ -1.5 WedNow NYJ -1.5 Sun
Raiders 38, Jets 33
Grading the preview: The Raiders can't run. Kirk Cousins doesn't need them to.
The calls, graded
- MissBraelon Allen runs for fewer than 100 yards.Allen ran 21 times for 147 yards.
- HitThe Raiders beat the Jets.Las Vegas won 38-33 as a 1.5-point underdog.
- HitKirk Cousins throws at least two touchdown passes.Cousins threw 3 touchdown passes.
- HitThe Jets score touchdowns on fewer than half of their red-zone trips.New York scored touchdowns on 2 of 6 red-zone trips, 33%.
The miss: Allen runs for 147
Our preview said Braelon Allen would run for fewer than 100 yards. He ran 21 times for 147 yards and a touchdown, 7.0 a carry. Miss, by 48 yards.
The reasoning failed with it. We leaned on a Jets run game averaging 3.8 a carry and two inactive Jets linemen. The Raiders run defense we called 31st played like it. And we wrote that if Allen went over 100, the Jets were probably winning. They lost.
The pick: the Raiders win. Hit.
Raiders 38, Jets 33. The pick followed the XOCP projection, which had the Raiders by a tenth of a point. The books had the Jets by 1.5.
We called it close to a coin flip, and it nearly landed the other way. The Jets scored on their first six possessions and led by nine at halftime. Two things we did not call kept the Raiders in it: Dylan Laube's 95-yard kickoff return, the first kickoff returned for a touchdown in the league this season, and Jeremy Chinn's interception in the end zone with 14 seconds left.
Reason 1: Cousins throws two touchdowns. Hit.
Kirk Cousins went 19 of 26 for 247 yards and three touchdowns, two to Brock Bowers and the go-ahead score to Jalen Nailor, and ran one in himself.
It landed for our reason. The Raiders still could not run: 33 carries for 95 yards, 2.9 a carry. The red-zone problem we flagged as the counter-stat did not show up. Las Vegas went 4 for 4.
Reason 2: the Jets don't finish. Hit.
New York scored touchdowns on 2 of 6 red-zone trips. Jason Sanders kicked four field goals, and that is the five-point game.
The number held. Our explanation for it, a Jets offense without Breece Hall, does not: Allen ran for 147 in Hall's place. The Jets moved the ball fine, 439 yards, and stalled short of the end zone anyway.
The tally
Three hits and one miss. Reason 1 hit for our reason. The pick and Reason 2 hit, but the game turned on a kickoff return and a last-second interception we never mentioned. Reason 3 missed on the number and on what we said it would mean.
Sources
- Our preview: The Raiders can't run. Kirk Cousins doesn't need them to. (XOCP)
- Raiders at Jets box score (ESPN, Nov. 1, 2026)
- Raiders at Jets team stats (ESPN, Nov. 1, 2026)
- Raiders 38, Jets 33 game recap (AP via ESPN, Nov. 1, 2026)
- Week 8: Vegas vs. XOCP (XOCP)
- 2025 Raiders at Commanders 97 (Wikimedia Commons)
