The Raiders can't run. Kirk Cousins doesn't need them to.

Our pick: the Raiders win at MetLife

This is as close as a disagreement gets. Our projection has the Raiders 23.7, Jets 23.6, a tenth of a point. The books have the Jets by 1.5. We are not claiming an edge on the number. We are taking the side, and here is why.

Where the calls come from: the pick follows the XOCP projection, which adds up player projections into a final score. The three reasons below are our editorial calls, not model output.

Reason 1: Cousins throws two touchdowns

Kirk Cousins has 16 touchdown passes in seven games, the most in the league, with 1,877 yards and five interceptions. Pro Football Grades has the Raiders' pass grade 5th and climbing, against a Jets pass defense graded 19th and sliding.

The counter-stat: Las Vegas scores touchdowns on only 46.4% of red-zone trips, 29th. That is how a team throws 16 touchdowns and still loses four straight. What squares it here is field position. The Raiders start drives at the 35, first in the league, and the Jets allow touchdowns on 56% of red-zone trips, 14th, a middling number rather than a wall.

Reason 2: the Jets don't finish

New York turns 45% of red-zone trips into touchdowns, 31st. Field goals instead of touchdowns are how a team loses a game this close.

The counter-stat is ugly for us: the Raiders allow touchdowns on 78.6% of red-zone trips, 30th. One of those numbers breaks today. We side with the Jets' number because they finish without Breece Hall for a fifth straight week, and without receiver Tim Patrick, both inactive.

Reason 3: Braelon Allen stays under 100

This is the case against us, made into a call. The Raiders allow 5.0 yards a carry, 31st, and their run defense grade is 30th and falling. Braelon Allen has two 100-yard games in four starts and averages 4.6 a carry.

What squares it: the Jets run game as a whole averages 3.8 a carry, 25th, and two Jets offensive linemen, Kohl Levao and Max Mitchell, are inactive today. If Allen goes over 100, the Jets are probably winning, and this call is where you will see it first.

The Raiders cannot run, so Cousins carries it

Las Vegas averages 3.0 yards a carry, 31st, and Pro Football Grades puts the run game 32nd, the floor. Every yard comes from Cousins. Klint Kubiak said as much on Monday: "Kirk is playing at a very high level, and he has to continue to do that for us to win."

Kubiak also shut down a quarterback change. Fernando Mendoza, the No. 1 overall pick, is not playing this week. The Raiders started 3-0 and have lost four straight. The Jets are 2-5 after losing 28-25 to a previously winless Miami.

The case against us

Our projection margin is a tenth of a point. Treat this pick as close to a coin flip, not a contrarian edge. The books lean Jets for real reasons: a Raiders defense that gives up touchdowns inside the 20 and can't stop the run, and a Jets quarterback, Geno Smith, completing 70% with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions. If Allen runs free and the Jets cash their red-zone trips, this is a Jets win and three misses on this page.