We said Green Bay would kick field goals. It scored every time.

The miss: three trips, three touchdowns

Our preview said Green Bay would score touchdowns on fewer than half its red-zone trips. A team that can't run near the goal line settles for field goals, we wrote, and that would keep Carolina close.

Green Bay went 3 for 3. Miss.

The reasoning failed too, and it failed in an instructive way. We were right that the Packers could not run: 26 carries for 66 yards, 2.5 a carry. We were wrong that it mattered near the goal line. Jordan Love went 30 of 41 for 288 yards and three touchdowns, to Tucker Kraft, Matthew Golden and Jacobs. The man we said could not hang on to a pass in the end zone caught one.

The pick: Green Bay wins. Hit.

Packers 27, Panthers 19. The pick followed the XOCP projection, which had Green Bay winning 25.8 to 22.9. The Packers won by eight, more than both XOCP and the 3.5-point line expected.

We expected a close game, and the miss above is a big part of why it wasn't one. Green Bay led 27-10. Carolina's touchdown that made it 27-19 came with 5:37 left.

Reason 1: Jacobs under 4.0 a carry. Hit.

Josh Jacobs ran 21 times for 39 yards, 1.9 a carry, with a long of 6. Against the worst run defense in the league, that is the number we predicted.

Did it land for our reason? We blamed his line, not him, and the whole team ran for 2.5 a carry. We did not check who started on the line, so the line is our likely cause, not a confirmed one. Jacobs also scored twice, once running and once catching, so this was not a bad night for him.

Reason 3: Carolina turns it over twice. Hit, partly for the wrong reason.

Carolina threw one interception and lost one fumble. Two turnovers, hit. The Packers also sacked Bryce Young six times.

But we said the defense would win the game, and it didn't. Green Bay turned the ball over three times, one more than Carolina. The Packers won this on offense, not on takeaways.

The tally

Three hits and one miss. The pick and Reason 1 landed for the reasons we gave. Reason 3 was right on the number and wrong about what decided the game. Reason 2 was wrong on both counts, and it was the one we put forward as the case against us.