Preview · Panthers at Packers · Week 8
Josh Jacobs is back. Green Bay's run game isn't.
Green Bay brings the worst rushing attack in the league into a game against the worst run defense, with its star back in his second game back. We say the Packers win anyway, and not because of Jacobs.
With Vegas
Vegas favorsGB -3.5
Our pickThe Packers beat the Panthers.
Opened GB -3.25 WedNow GB -3.5 Thu
The calls, graded
- MissGreen Bay scores touchdowns on fewer than half its red-zone trips.Green Bay went 3 for 3 in the red zone.
- HitThe Packers beat the Panthers.Green Bay won 27-19, an 8-point margin against a 3.5-point line.
- HitJosh Jacobs averages under 4.0 yards a carry.Jacobs ran 21 times for 39 yards, 1.9 a carry.
- HitCarolina turns the ball over at least twice.Carolina threw 1 interception and lost 1 fumble: 2 turnovers.
Our pick: Green Bay wins
The Packers are 3.5-point favourites, and XOCP's projection has them winning 25.8 to 22.9. We go with it: Green Bay wins. A Carolina win is a miss, and we will print it.
The pick follows the XOCP projection. The three reasons below are our editorial calls, not model output.
Reason 1: Jacobs runs into his own line
On paper this is a feast. Carolina allows 5.2 yards a carry, last in the league, and Tampa Bay just ran for 258 yards on it in a 43-13 win.
But the problem in Green Bay was never only the back. In his return at Detroit, Jacobs ran 11 times for 36 yards. In that game the Packers lost starting center Sean Rhyan to an ankle injury and backup Jacob Monk to injured reserve. Most of the snaps went to John Williams, who had never played an offensive snap before Sunday. Right guard Travis Glover is uncertain with a knee, and right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele is out for the season.
Our call: Jacobs averages under 4.0 yards a carry. Worst defense against a patched-up line, and we're betting on the line.
Reason 2: The red zone is where this gets close
This is the case against us. Green Bay scores touchdowns on 46.2% of red-zone trips, 30th. Carolina allows 76.5%, 28th, so one of those numbers breaks tonight.
We think Green Bay's stays true. A team that can't run near the goal line settles for field goals, and Jacobs could not hang on to a pass in the end zone with the Detroit game tied late.
Our call: Green Bay scores touchdowns on fewer than half its red-zone trips. That keeps Carolina in the game. We think the Packers win anyway, on field goals and takeaways.
Reason 3: The defense wins it
If Green Bay wins, this is how. Pro Football Grades ranks the Packers' pass defense 5th and their takeaways 1st. Carolina's passing offense is 12th.
Our call: Carolina turns it over at least twice.
The number Jacobs is chasing
Green Bay runs for 59.9 yards a game, nearly 15 fewer than any other team. In the last 35 seasons, only the 2019 Bengals ran for less through seven games.
Most of that came without Jacobs. He missed the first six games on the commissioner's exempt list, after pleading no contest last month to misdemeanor charges. He is off this week's injury report.
He knows what the job is. "Breaking tackles, grinding out those hard yards turning a 2-yard run into a 4-yard run," Jacobs said on Tuesday, per the AP. Four yards is our line. We say he doesn't get there.
The case against us
XOCP has this as a 2.9-point game, inside the spread, so a Carolina win is no shock. If Jacobs breaks tackles the way he says he will against a defense that just gave up 258 on the ground, Reason 1 falls and Green Bay probably covers.
Inactives were not confirmed when this went up. If Jacobs or any starting lineman is ruled out, the Reason 1 call changes, and we'll say so in the follow-up.
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