Vegas ran 3.5 points toward the Raiders. We still take the Rams.

Our pick: the Rams win in Las Vegas

On October 14, every book we track had the Rams favoured by 6.5 or 7. This morning it is 3 to 3.5, and the moneyline is Rams -175. Only one game on the slate moved further.

XOCP never bought the touchdown. Its projection has Rams 26.2, Raiders 24.2, a two-point game. The market spent the week walking toward our number. We say it stops there: the Rams win. A Raiders win is a miss, and we will print it.

Reason 1: the Raiders cannot run, so they will not

Las Vegas averages 79.2 rushing yards a game, 30th in the league. Last week against Buffalo it ran 20 times for 65 yards; Ashton Jeanty had 22 of them on 10 carries.

Mike Washington Jr., who carried 9 times for 43 that day, is questionable with foot and back injuries after missing Thursday and Friday practice. Our call: the Raiders finish under 80 rushing yards.

Reason 2: Cousins gives one away

Kirk Cousins has 14 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in six games, and he threw one more in the 33-30 loss to Buffalo on 41 attempts. The Rams allow 167 passing yards a game, second-fewest in the league, and have five interceptions. Our call: Cousins throws at least one.

The Raiders know where this game is decided. Their own preview is headlined "The main objective is keeping Kirk Cousins' jersey clean".

Reason 3: Stafford still throws for 250

This is the reason the line moved, so it gets its own call. Davante Adams pulled up late in the 18-16 loss to Arizona, and on Monday Sean McVay said he is out 6 to 10 weeks with a hamstring injury. Our captures show the two biggest drops in the line that Sunday night and the next day. Puka Nacua then hurt his calf on Thursday, missed Friday, and is questionable pending a pregame workout.

McVay: "Whether you're talking about Adams, whether you're talking about Puka, you don't ever ask anybody to replace those guys."

We think Matthew Stafford makes it look less dire than it sounds. The Rams average 288.7 passing yards, second in the league, and the Raiders allow 237.3, 24th. Raiders defensive coordinator Rob Leonard on Stafford: "He's great at identifying coverage. They're great at identifying what you're doing and adapting." Our call: Stafford throws for at least 250 yards, with or without Nacua.

The case against us

The Rams are 2-4 and lost to a 1-4 Arizona team at home, where Stafford was sacked three times and lost a fumble. They score 22.5 points a game, 20th; the Raiders score 27.0, sixth.

The run defense is a hole: the Rams allow 127 rushing yards a game, 26th, and linebacker Nate Landman is out with a concussion. Cornerback Trent McDuffie missed every practice this week and is questionable. If the Raiders find the run game they have not had all year, our first reason dies and the pick probably goes with it.

Inactives post 90 minutes before kickoff, after this story goes up; Nacua's status was unconfirmed at publish time.