Follow-up · 49ers 32, Seahawks 29
We broke Purdy's sack streak. Seattle still lost.
We picked Seattle and said Purdy's zero-sack season would end in Seattle. It did, three times, and San Francisco won 32-29 anyway. One hit, three misses.
With Vegas
Vegas favorsSEA -3
Our pickSeattle beats San Francisco.
Opened SEA -3.5 TueNow SEA -3 Sun
49ers 32, Seahawks 29
Grading the preview: Four games, zero sacks. Purdy's streak dies in Seattle.
The calls, graded
- MissSeattle beats San Francisco.San Francisco won 32-29 in Seattle. Seattle, a 3-point favourite, lost outright.
- MissChristian McCaffrey runs for fewer than 60 yards.McCaffrey ran 11 times for 68 yards, 9 more than our line of 59.
- MissSeattle converts at least 40 percent of its third downs.Seattle went 3 of 12 on third down, 25 percent.
- HitSeattle sacks Brock Purdy at least twice.Purdy was sacked 3 times for 14 yards: two by Byron Murphy II, one by Ernest Jones IV.
The result
San Francisco won 32-29 in Seattle and is 5-0. Seattle is 3-2.
It was a mess of a game: seven turnovers between them, four by Seattle and three by San Francisco. Jason Myers kicked five field goals for Seattle. Five field goals means five drives that stalled short of the end zone.
Seattle led 26-21 after three quarters. Purdy took over from there, Eddy Pineiro's field goal put San Francisco up 32-29 with 1:56 left, and Seattle's last drive died on fourth down when Malik Mustapha stopped Cooper Kupp a yard short.
The big miss: the pick
We said Seattle wins, with the line and with our projection of Seattle 27.7, San Francisco 22.0. Seattle scored 29, close to our number. San Francisco scored 32, ten more than we gave it.
The preview said San Francisco had averaged 4.5 points across the last two meetings, without a touchdown. On Sunday it scored three touchdowns: Purdy threw two, to Mike Evans and Brandin Cooks, and McCaffrey ran one in. Evans caught 7 for 113.
“That's one of the best defenses in the league,” coach Kyle Shanahan said. “But I thought he was really good in the fourth quarter.”
Miss: Seattle on third down
This was the call we said was aimed at our weak spot. Seattle went 3 of 12 on third down. That's 25 percent, worse than the 31 percent it brought in.
The reasoning behind it was wrong too. We said that without Nick Bosa, Sam Darnold gets time. He got sacked five times for 33 yards and threw two interceptions, both to Renardo Green.
The last third down hurt the most. Smith-Njigba dropped a pass at the San Francisco 25 on the final drive. “We had an opportunity to go down there and win the game,” he said. “I have to reel those ones in. I know that.”
Miss: McCaffrey under 60
Christian McCaffrey ran 11 times for 68 yards, 6.2 a carry, with a touchdown. No Kyle Juszczyk, no problem. Seattle's top-ranked run defence gave up 94 rushing yards to the 49ers.
The preview printed his four games: 68, 23, 75 and 52. Two over 60, two under. We called a coin flip and lost it.
Hit: Purdy sacked twice
The streak is over. Seattle sacked Purdy three times for 14 yards: Byron Murphy II twice and Ernest Jones IV once. It was the one reason that landed.
It did not stop him. Purdy went 19 of 29 for 189 yards, two touchdowns and one interception, and did his best work late.
The case against us was right
The preview said Seattle's offense can go missing, and that if it stalled on third down, Reason 3 would go first and the pick might follow. That is exactly the order it happened in. Seattle gained 251 yards, fewer than the 286 against the Chargers we worried about.
We wrote the warning and picked Seattle anyway.
What we are changing
The McCaffrey call rested on four games, two on each side of the line we drew. When our own evidence splits down the middle, that isn't a reason, it's a guess. A call goes in the preview only if the numbers we print lean clearly one way.
