Preview · Vikings at Lions · Week 8
The Lions win. Just not by a field goal and a hook.
The books have Detroit by 3.5 and our projection has Detroit by 0.7. The league's best passing game meets the league's best pass defense, and we think that squeezes this into a one-score finish.
With Vegas
Vegas favorsDET -3.5
Our pickThe Lions beat the Vikings.
Opened DET -3 WedNow DET -3.5 Sun
The pick and three reasons
- PendingThe Lions beat the Vikings.Settled by: The final score. A Lions win is a hit; a loss is a miss; a tie is a push.
- PendingThe game is decided by 3 points or fewer.Settled by: The final margin, either side. 3 or fewer is a hit; a tie is a hit.
- PendingMinnesota throws for fewer than 200 net passing yards.Settled by: Vikings net passing yards in the official box score. 199 or fewer is a hit.
- PendingDetroit converts at least 40% of its third downs.Settled by: Lions third-down conversions over attempts in the official box score. 40% or higher is a hit.
Pending until the final whistle. Each call is graded hit, miss or push by the stat named under it.
Our pick: Detroit wins at Ford Field
Our projection has Detroit by 0.7. The books have Detroit by 3.5. We agree on the winner and disagree on almost everything else, so the margin is where this story lives.
Where the calls come from: the pick follows the XOCP projection, which adds up player projections into a final score. The three reasons below are our editorial calls, not model output.
Reason 1: the game is decided by 3 points or fewer
Detroit's passing game is graded 1st, at 7.2 net yards per pass. Minnesota's pass defense is also graded 1st, allowing 4.7 net yards per pass, 2nd. When the best thing one team does runs straight into the best thing the other team does, the game gets small.
The counter-stat: home favourites of 3 covered only 42% of 388 league games in Pro Football Grades' sample, which argues for a close game too, but Detroit's offense is the reason the books expect more than a field goal. We think Minnesota's pass defense takes that margin away.
Reason 2: Minnesota throws for under 200 yards
Minnesota has 974 passing yards, 31st, at 5.4 net yards per pass, and Detroit leads the league with 21 sacks. Kyler Murray starts, with Carson Wentz behind him, per the Vikings' inactive list.
The counter-stat: Detroit's pass defense grade is only 22nd, and the Lions are without safety Kerby Joseph. What squares it: corner Roger McCreary, questionable on Friday, is active, and a pass rush that leads the league in sacks shortens every throw.
Reason 3: Detroit converts at least 40% of its third downs
This is the case against us, made into a call. Minnesota allows 28.2% on third down, 3rd. Detroit converts 39.1%, 17th. If the Lions cannot stay on the field, the Vikings' defense wins this game for them.
What squares it: Minnesota's run defense is graded 6th but trending down, and Detroit runs for 4.2 a carry. Shorter third downs are how Detroit gets there. If the Lions convert fewer than 40%, expect a Vikings win and a miss on the pick too.
The case against us
Minnesota's offense is graded 30th, near the floor, and its third-down rate is 36.7%, 26th, against a Detroit defense that allows 47.7%, 28th. If Detroit's offense simply does what it does every week, this is a two-score game, three misses on the margin, and the books were right.
