Preview · Eagles at Commanders · Week 8
Three wins between them. Washington runs its way to the fourth.
The books have Washington by 6 and our projection has Washington by 7.6. Philadelphia cannot stop the run or take the ball away, and that matters more than the two linemen Washington lost this week.
With Vegas
Vegas favorsWAS -6
Our pickThe Commanders beat the Eagles.
Opened WAS -4 WedNow WAS -6 Sun
The pick and three reasons
- PendingThe Commanders beat the Eagles.Settled by: The final score. A Commanders win is a hit; a loss is a miss; a tie is a push.
- PendingWashington runs for at least 130 yards.Settled by: Commanders team rushing yards in the official box score. 130 or more is a hit.
- PendingPhiladelphia scores 20 points or fewer.Settled by: The Eagles' final score. 20 or fewer is a hit.
- PendingSaquon Barkley runs for fewer than 80 yards.Settled by: Barkley's rushing yards in the official box score. 79 or fewer is a hit; if he is inactive, a push.
Pending until the final whistle. Each call is graded hit, miss or push by the stat named under it.
Our pick: Washington wins in Landover
Our projection has Washington 26.2, Philadelphia 18.6. The books have Washington by 6. We are with Vegas on the winner and a little past it on the margin.
Where the calls come from: the pick follows the XOCP projection, which adds up player projections into a final score. The three reasons below are our editorial calls, not model output.
Neither team is good. Washington is 1-4-1 and Philadelphia is 2-5. Someone has to win.
Reason 1: Washington runs for 130 yards
Washington averages 4.6 yards a carry, 8th. Philadelphia's run defense is graded 26th and trending down. That is the lane.
The counter-stat: Washington's run grade is only 18th, so the yards per carry flatter the run game. What squares it: Philadelphia's pass defense is also graded 26th, so the Eagles cannot load the box without paying for it, and Jayden Daniels finished the week a full participant with no designation.
Reason 2: the Eagles score 20 or fewer
Philadelphia scores on 28.8% of its drives, 31st, at 4.9 net yards per pass, 30th. The Eagles have ruled out receiver DeVonta Smith along with four others, per Friday's injury report.
The counter-stat: when the Eagles do reach the red zone, they score touchdowns on 73.7% of trips, 4th, and Washington's red-zone defense is last at 81.8%. What squares it: the problem is getting there. A team that scores on fewer than three drives in ten does not get many red-zone trips.
Reason 3: Saquon Barkley stays under 80 rushing yards
This is the case against us, made into a call. Washington lost Daron Payne to a foot injury in Friday's practice, and Javon Kinlaw is out with a knee, per Sports Illustrated. Bleeding Green Nation calls them Washington's top two interior defensive linemen, and Barkley is expected to play. Inactives post after this story publishes, so that is unconfirmed at publish time.
What squares it: Barkley was limited on Friday with hamstring and back issues, and Philadelphia's run game averages 3.9 a carry, 23rd. The Eagles have not run well all season. If Barkley goes over 80, the middle of Washington's line was the story and this pick is in trouble.
The turnover row
Philadelphia takes the ball away on 3.9% of plays, last in the league. Washington gives it away on 2.9%, first. A bad team that does not turn it over against a bad team that cannot take it away is usually the team that wins a close one.
The case against us
Pro Football Grades' series numbers point the other way: at this line, Washington is 1 of 9 against Philadelphia, and 0 of 5 at home in the series. Washington also converts 30.9% of its third downs, last in the league. If Barkley runs through a thin interior line and Washington stalls on third down, the Eagles win this and the series trend wins again.
