Follow-up · Commanders 27, Eagles 10
Four for four. The closest call cleared by five yards.
Washington won by 17 and every call hit. One of them, 130 rushing yards, made it by 5, and the game started 10-0 the wrong way.
With Vegas
Vegas favorsWAS -6
Our pickThe Commanders beat the Eagles.
Opened WAS -4 WedNow WAS -6 Sun
Commanders 27, Eagles 10
Grading the preview: Three wins between them. Washington runs its way to the fourth.
The calls, graded
- HitThe Commanders beat the Eagles.Washington won 27-10, a 17-point margin against a 6-point line.
- HitWashington runs for at least 130 yards.Washington ran 26 times for 135 yards.
- HitPhiladelphia scores 20 points or fewer.Philadelphia scored 10.
- HitSaquon Barkley runs for fewer than 80 yards.Barkley ran 13 times for 30 yards.
The closest call: Washington runs for 130. Hit, barely.
Our preview said Washington would run for at least 130 yards. It ran 26 times for 135, spread across four ballcarriers. Rachaad White led with 55. Five yards from a miss.
Did it land for our reason? Partly. We said Philadelphia could not load the box without paying through the air, and Jayden Daniels threw for 217 yards without Terry McLaurin. No back carried it, though. This was a committee clearing the bar, not a run game taking over.
The pick: Washington wins. Hit.
Commanders 27, Eagles 10. The pick followed the XOCP projection, which had Washington by 7.6. The books had 6. Washington won by 17.
It did not start that way. Washington committed a run of first-quarter penalties, missed a field goal and lost a fumble, and trailed 10-0. Then it scored 27 straight.
Reason 2: the Eagles score 20 or fewer. Hit.
Philadelphia scored 10, all in the first quarter. Tanner McKee was sacked five times and threw for 212 yards without a touchdown. The Eagles had 268 total yards, 199 before the final drive.
It landed for our reason: an offense that does not get to the red zone. Philadelphia reached it twice all night.
Reason 3: Barkley under 80. Hit.
Saquon Barkley ran 13 times for 30 yards, 2.3 a carry, with a touchdown. Daron Payne and Javon Kinlaw were both ruled out, the case against us we turned into this call. It did not matter. The Eagles ran for 91 yards as a team, and the reason we gave, a Philadelphia run game that had not worked all season, held.
What we did not call
Our turnover argument was half right. Washington lost one fumble; Philadelphia lost two, one interception and one fumble. And the series trend we printed as the case against us, Washington 1 of 9 against Philadelphia at this line, broke.
The tally
Four hits. The pick, Reason 2 and Reason 3 landed for the reasons we gave. Reason 1 landed on a committee of backs and with five yards to spare, so we count it as a hit that could easily have been a miss.
Sources
- Our preview: Three wins between them. Washington runs its way to the fourth. (XOCP)
- Eagles at Commanders box score (ESPN, Nov. 1, 2026)
- Eagles at Commanders team stats (ESPN, Nov. 1, 2026)
- Commanders 27, Eagles 10 game recap (AP via ESPN, Nov. 1, 2026)
- Commanders' final injury report takes a serious turn ahead of Eagles game (Sports Illustrated)
- Week 8: Vegas vs. XOCP (XOCP)
- Jayden Daniels and Tuli Tuipulotu (Wikimedia Commons)
