XOCPSign in

Preview · Ravens at Falcons · Week 5

Even Derrick Henry says Atlanta has the better back.

Lamar Jackson is out, and the line flipped from Baltimore by six to Atlanta by three. Our projection has Atlanta by only 1.5, so we're with the number on who wins, not on how much: Atlanta, for three reasons that can each go wrong on their own.

· 4 min read

By XOCP · Written with AI assistance · Edited by Joe Ybarra

With Vegas

Vegas favorsATL -3

Our pickAtlanta beats Baltimore.

Line movement

Opened BAL -6.25 TueNow ATL -3.5 Sun

The pick and three reasons

  1. PendingAtlanta beats Baltimore.Settled by: The final score. An Atlanta win is a hit; a loss is a miss; a tie is a push.
  2. PendingBijan Robinson runs for at least 100 yards.Settled by: Robinson's rushing yards in the official box score. 100 or more is a hit.
  3. PendingDerrick Henry runs for fewer than 80 yards.Settled by: Henry's rushing yards in the official box score. 79 or fewer is a hit.
  4. PendingTyler Huntley throws for fewer than 225 yards.Settled by: Huntley's passing yards in the official box score. 224 or fewer is a hit.

Pending until the final whistle. Each call is graded hit, miss or push by the stat named under it.

The film · 55.37 seconds. Motion graphics and synthesized score by XOCP.
Tyler Huntley, No. 2 in a white Ravens uniform, runs out of the pocket with the ball tucked as his linemen block.
Tyler Huntley at Washington in the preseason, August 27, 2021. The photo shows the 2021 team, not the 2026 one. Photo: All-Pro Reels (resized) · CC BY-SA 2.0, resized

Reason 1: Bijan Robinson runs for 100

Derrick Henry was asked about the back on the other sideline this week. He called Bijan Robinson "the best in the game right now" and added: "I ain't going to shy away from it."

The numbers back him. With Michael Penix out, Robinson ran for 83 and 72. Penix came back in Week 3, and Robinson ran for 194 at Green Bay and 145 at New Orleans.

Baltimore's run defense is ordinary: 400 yards on 103 carries, 3.9 a carry, and Dallas ran for 148 two weeks ago. Our call: Robinson runs for at least 100.

Reason 2: Henry runs for less than 80

Atlanta's run defense has allowed 193 rushing yards all season. Not per game. In four games. That is 2.7 a carry and the fewest in the league. Green Bay ran nine times for 17 yards against it.

Henry opened the year with 144 at Indianapolis. Since then: 68, 89 and 73. Without Jackson, defenses have one man to watch. We say Henry finishes under 80.

Reason 3: Huntley throws for less than 225

This one is aimed straight at our weak spot, which is below. Tyler Huntley threw for 426 yards in five games last season, never more than 186 in one. He went 8 of 9 for 63 in relief last Sunday, and Baltimore did not score in the second half.

Atlanta has given up 285 or more to three straight quarterbacks: 287, 312, 286. We say Huntley is not the fourth: fewer than 225 passing yards.

More than nine points in three days

On Saturday, October 3, every book we track had Baltimore by 6 or 6.5. Then Jackson's ankle went: he was hurt on the last offensive play of the first half against Tennessee and left the stadium in a boot. Our capture on Monday morning: Baltimore by 3.5.

Monday night Atlanta won 45-24 in New Orleans. By Tuesday morning the line was Atlanta by 3, and it has sat between 3 and 3.5 since. The Ravens ruled Jackson out on Friday.

Our projection adds up every player's projected points, with Huntley at quarterback, and gets Atlanta 24.7, Baltimore 23.2. That is Atlanta by 1.5. We are with Vegas on the winner and half as sure about the margin.

The case against us

Atlanta's pass defense. Bryce Young threw for 287, Jordan Love for 312 and Tyler Shough for 286. Zay Flowers caught 8 for 118 last week. If Baltimore stops trying to run into the best run defense in football and throws instead, Reason 3 goes first and the pick may follow.

And the Penix revival is two games old, against Green Bay and New Orleans. Before it, Atlanta scored 13 and 3. A 1.5-point projection is close to a coin toss, and we know it.

Sources

  1. Derrick Henry calls Bijan Robinson NFL's 'best' RB (Bleacher Report, Oct. 8, 2026)
  2. Bijan Robinson drops Kobe Bryant quote on primetime (Bleacher Report, Oct. 1, 2026)
  3. Lamar Jackson out with ankle sprain vs. Falcons (NBC Washington, Oct. 9, 2026)
  4. Lamar Jackson injury update shifts Ravens vs. Falcons odds (SI, Oct. 5, 2026)
  5. 2026 team rushing defense (NFL.com)
  6. Falcons at Steelers box score, Sept. 13, 2026 (ESPN)
  7. Panthers at Falcons box score, Sept. 20, 2026 (ESPN)
  8. Falcons at Packers box score, Sept. 24, 2026 (ESPN)
  9. Falcons at Saints box score, Oct. 5, 2026 (ESPN)
  10. Ravens at Colts box score, Sept. 13, 2026 (ESPN)
  11. Saints at Ravens box score, Sept. 20, 2026 (ESPN)
  12. Ravens vs. Cowboys box score, Sept. 27, 2026 (ESPN)
  13. Titans at Ravens box score, Oct. 4, 2026 (ESPN)
  14. Tyler Huntley 2025 game log (ESPN)
  15. Week 5 matchups: Vegas vs. XOCP (XOCP)

Keep reading

Film · 53.77s

NFL · Seattle Seahawks

Four games, zero sacks. Purdy's streak dies in Seattle.

San Francisco is 4-0 and Brock Purdy has not been sacked once, yet the line still has Seattle by 3 and our projection has Seattle by 5.7. We're with the number: Seattle wins, for three reasons that can each go wrong on their own.

· 4 min read

Film · 60.73s

NFL · Washington Commanders

The 3-1 team is the underdog. The books are right.

Washington lost by 17 last Sunday and the Giants won by 12, and the line still moved from Washington by 2.5 to Washington by 4. Our projection has Washington by 4.6, so we're with the number: Washington wins, for three reasons that can each go wrong on their own.

· 4 min read

Film · 54.37s

NFL · Dallas Cowboys

The money is chasing an undrafted rookie. Let it.

Since Monday the line has dropped from Dallas by 10 to Dallas by 8, and no injury news did it. Our projection has Dallas by 7.8, so we're with the number: Dallas wins, for three reasons that can each go wrong on their own.

· 4 min read