The 3-1 team is the underdog. The books are right.

Reason 1: Daniels runs for 40

Jayden Daniels has played two games this year and run for 100 yards on 12 carries. Sixty-nine of them came on seven carries at Dallas, the game in which he dislocated his non-throwing elbow.

He starts Sunday after full practices on Wednesday and Thursday, coach Dan Quinn confirmed Friday. He will wear a brace on that non-throwing arm for the rest of the season. The brace is the risk in this call. Our call: Daniels runs for at least 40 yards anyway.

Reason 2: Winston throws a pick

Jaxson Dart hurt his knee on the opening drive in Los Angeles and will miss the rest of the regular season. Jameis Winston has since thrown 78 passes and three interceptions: one against the Rams and two against Arizona. He has 116 in his career.

Washington's defense has three interceptions of its own: two off Sam Darnold, one returned for a touchdown, and one off Daniel Jones. Its coordinator, Daronte Jones, called Winston "high risk, high reward." We say the risk shows up at least once.

Reason 3: Washington gives it away once, at most

This is the one aimed at our weak spot. The Giants' defense lives on the ball: eight takeaways in four games, one against Dallas, two against the Rams, two against Tennessee and three against Arizona, one of them a 98-yard interception return by Deonte Banks.

Washington has protected it. Two giveaways all year, a lost fumble at Dallas and an interception in London, and none in Philadelphia or against Seattle. Our call: Washington turns it over no more than once.

The line moved the wrong way. It was right to.

Last Sunday the Giants beat Arizona 36-24 and Washington lost 30-13 to Indianapolis in London. Our captures had Washington by 2.5 at most books from September 30 through Saturday, by 3.5 by Sunday night and by 4 at seven of nine books on Friday, as the matchups page shows.

The record explains less than it seems. Washington's 1-3 came mostly without its quarterback: Daniels has missed 12 of the team's last 21 games, and Washington went 4-8 without him over the past two years. As a rookie he went 12-4.

The Giants' 3-1 is thinner than it looks. They have scored 82 and allowed 79: 28-20, 6-28, a 12-7 win over Tennessee on 238 yards, and 36 against Arizona with a pick-six in it. Their offense gains 283.3 yards a game, 26th in the league.

Our projection adds up every player's projected points and gets Washington 24.2, New York 19.6. That's Washington by 4.6: the number, and a Washington win.

The case against us

Washington's defense gives up 30.5 points a game, 30th in the league, and the Giants allow 19.8, eighth. Daniels has lost both of his starts this year, and he has finished only five games since the start of 2025. One more fall on that elbow and the backup is a seventh-round rookie.

His receivers are thin. Stefon Diggs, the team leader with 18 catches, is out with a hamstring, and Terry McLaurin, questionable with a hamstring, is active. Washington's defensive coordinator said it himself about Winston: "He can also put four or five touchdowns on you in a heartbeat." If the Giants win the turnover battle again, Reason 3 goes first and the pick follows it.