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Preview · Buccaneers at Cowboys · Week 5

The money is chasing an undrafted rookie. Let it.

Since Monday the line has dropped from Dallas by 10 to Dallas by 8, and no injury news did it. Our projection has Dallas by 7.8, so we're with the number: Dallas wins, for three reasons that can each go wrong on their own.

· 4 min read

By XOCP · Written with AI assistance · Edited by Joe Ybarra

With Vegas

Vegas favorsDAL -8

Our pickDallas beats Tampa Bay.

Line movement

Opened DAL -9.5 TueNow DAL -9 Thu

The pick and three reasons

  1. PendingDallas beats Tampa Bay.Settled by: The final score. A Dallas win is a hit; a loss is a miss; a tie is a push.
  2. PendingDak Prescott throws for at least 275 yards.Settled by: Prescott's passing yards in the official box score. 275 or more is a hit.
  3. PendingJalon Daniels throws at least one interception.Settled by: Interceptions thrown by Daniels in the official box score. One or more is a hit.
  4. PendingTampa Bay runs for fewer than 130 yards.Settled by: Tampa Bay's team rushing yards in the official box score. 129 or fewer is a hit.

Pending until the final whistle. Each call is graded hit, miss or push by the stat named under it.

The film · 54.37 seconds. Motion graphics and synthesized score by XOCP.
Dak Prescott, No. 4 in a white Cowboys uniform, throwing on the run as his linemen hold off a Washington pass rusher.
Dak Prescott throws at Washington, October 29, 2017. The photo shows the 2017 team, not the 2026 one. Photo: Keith Allison (resized) · CC BY-SA 2.0, resized

Reason 1: Prescott throws for 275

Tampa Bay stops the run. Opponents have 98 carries for 314 yards against it, 3.2 a carry. So Dallas throws, and Dak Prescott is already throwing: 279, 276 and 335 yards in his last three games.

CeeDee Lamb caught 17 for 189 in Houston and practiced in full all week, per the injury report. Our call: Prescott throws for at least 275.

Reason 2: Daniels throws a pick

Jalon Daniels has thrown 30 NFL passes and 3 interceptions: one in relief against Minnesota, two in his first start against Green Bay. Tampa Bay has given the ball away nine times in four games.

Here is what makes it a call and not a gimme: Dallas has not intercepted a pass all season. Not one, two, three or four games in. We say the first one comes Thursday.

Reason 3: Tampa Bay runs for less than 130

This is the one aimed straight at our weak spot. Dallas has given up 601 rushing yards on 126 carries, 4.8 a carry, and three of its four opponents ran for 165, 182 and 192.

The fourth was Houston, held to 62 on 19 carries last Sunday. We say that was the start of something: Tampa Bay, which ran for 141 against Green Bay, gets fewer than 130.

The line moved. The news didn't.

Baker Mayfield dislocated his right thumb on September 27. That was priced in before this week began: our captures had Dallas by 9.5 from September 30 through Sunday, then 10 on Monday, 8.5 on Tuesday and 8 on Wednesday.

Betting writers credit the money, not news. SI found 43 percent of spread bets on Tampa Bay and called it "possible that action on Tampa Bay caused this line to come down 1.5 points." VSiN's writer is taking Tampa Bay himself.

Our projection never moved toward Tampa Bay. It adds up every player's projected points and gets Dallas 28.9, Tampa Bay 21.1. That's Dallas by 7.8: the number, and a Dallas win.

The case against us

Dallas cannot stop a running quarterback. Jaxson Dart ran for 54, Jayden Daniels for 69 and Lamar Jackson for 50. Jalon Daniels ran for 55 in his first start. If his legs carry Tampa Bay, Reason 3 goes first, and the pick may follow it.

And Tampa Bay never gets blown out. Its losses this year are by 6, 4, 7 and 3. A team that keeps it that close is exactly the team the late money is betting on.

Sources

  1. Buccaneers 2026 team stats (ESPN)
  2. 2026 team rushing defense (NFL.com)
  3. Cowboys at Giants box score, Sept. 13, 2026 (ESPN)
  4. Commanders at Cowboys box score, Sept. 20, 2026 (ESPN)
  5. Ravens vs. Cowboys box score, Sept. 27, 2026 (ESPN)
  6. Cowboys at Texans box score, Oct. 4, 2026 (ESPN)
  7. Buccaneers at Packers box score, Oct. 4, 2026 (ESPN)
  8. Buccaneers 2026 schedule and results (ESPN)
  9. Buccaneers-Cowboys injury report, Oct. 7 (Buccaneers.com)
  10. Baker Mayfield expected to miss at least 3 weeks (AP via Bay News 9, Sept. 28, 2026)
  11. Buccaneers vs. Cowboys odds shift toward Tampa Bay (SI)
  12. Buccaneers vs. Cowboys predictions and odds (VSiN, Oct. 7, 2026)
  13. Week 5 matchups: Vegas vs. XOCP (XOCP)

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