We said Dallas would stop the run. Bucky Irving ran for 165.

The result

Tampa Bay beat Dallas 24-16 in Arlington on Thursday night. It was the Buccaneers' first win of the season. They are 1-4; Dallas is 2-3.

The game turned on the first play of the second half. Irving ran 72 yards, Emeka Egbuka scored on a 14-yard jet sweep the next snap, and then Prescott threw his first interception. Tez Johnson got loose for 64 yards, Irving plunged in from the 1, and it was 21-10. A KaVontae Turpin kickoff fumble set up a field goal on top.

“I didn’t plan on being 2-3, disappointed by that for sure,” Cowboys coach Brian Schottenheimer said. “But we’re just getting started.”

The big miss: Tampa Bay ran for 241

We aimed this one straight at our weak spot and said Tampa Bay would run for fewer than 130. It ran for 241 on 39 carries, 6.2 a carry. Irving cleared our line on his own: 21 carries, 165 yards, a career high. Miss, by 111 yards.

We built the call on one game, Houston held to 62 last Sunday, against three games of 165, 182 and 192. The three were the trend. The one was the exception. Irving's 72-yarder set up the go-ahead score, and his 5-yard touchdown catch capped a 15-play drive that ran 10:58.

Miss: the pick

We went with the number and picked Dallas. Dallas lost by 8. The line had been sliding toward Tampa Bay all week, from 10 to 8, and the late money was right where our projection was not.

Dallas ran 13 times for 50 yards and threw 42 passes. Tampa Bay held the ball, ran the clock and never turned it over. “We lost the first quarter of the season,” Bucs coach Todd Bowles said. “We didn’t lose the second, third or fourth.”

Miss: Daniels throws a pick

Daniels went 19 of 25 for 189 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions. Tampa Bay finished with zero turnovers. Dallas still has not intercepted a pass this season, five games in.

We said that was what made it a call and not a gimme. It was. It missed. Daniels did not have to win it with his arm, because Irving was winning it on the ground, and he threw only 25 times. “Six months ago, if you would have told me that my first win would have been on a Thursday night, (Amazon) Prime football game, I don’t know what I would have told you,” Daniels said.

Hit: Prescott throws for 275

Prescott threw for 316 yards, 24 of 42. That is a hit, and it is a hollow one. He threw two interceptions, to Yaya Diaby and Alex Anzalone, his first picks since the opener. The second came off a tipped pass in the final two minutes and ended it.

The yards did not come from CeeDee Lamb, who caught 2 of 5 targets for 9 yards and left with a quadriceps injury. George Pickens caught 9 for 130 and the touchdown, a 13-yarder at the end of a 99-yard drive. Ryan Flournoy added 90 on three catches.

The case against us was right, about the wrong player

The preview said Dallas cannot stop a running quarterback and that Reason 3 would go first if Daniels ran. Reason 3 did go first, and the pick followed. But Daniels ran 7 times for 23 yards. The damage came from the running back.

We also said Tampa Bay never gets blown out. It went further than that and won by 8.

What we are changing

Two things. First, a call that bets on a trend breaking needs more than one game behind it. Reason 3 had one good week against four bad ones and we called it the start of something.

Second, a reason has to point at the pick. Prescott's 275 needed Dallas to throw a lot, and a team throws a lot when it is behind. It hit on 42 attempts in a loss. A yardage call for the favourite's quarterback is not a reason the favourite wins, so we will stop writing it as one.