Follow-up · Bears 23, Jets 12
Bears by 11. Both our turnover calls went the other way.
We picked Chicago to win, cover 3.5 and beat the Jets on turnovers, starting with Geno Smith's first interception of the year. The Bears won by 11 and covered. They also lost the turnover battle 2-0, and Smith never threw a pick.
With Vegas
Vegas favorsCHI -3.5
Our pickChicago beats the Jets.
Opened CHI -3 TueNow CHI -3.5 Sun
Bears 23, Jets 12
Grading the preview: Vegas just knocked 5 points off the Bears. Nobody will say why.
The calls, graded
- MissChicago intercepts Geno Smith at least once, ending his run of 102 attempts without one.Geno Smith threw 15 passes and no interceptions: 8 of 15 for 119 yards and a touchdown.
- MissChicago wins the turnover battle.Chicago turned it over twice, a Tyson Bagent interception and a D'Andre Swift fumble. The Jets turned it over zero times.
- HitChicago beats the Jets.Chicago won 23-12.
- HitChicago wins by four or more points, covering the 3.5-point line.Chicago won by 11 against a 3.5-point line.
The result
Chicago beat the Jets 23-12 at Soldier Field. Kyle Monangai ran 30 times for 146 yards and both Bears touchdowns. Tyson Bagent, starting for the injured Caleb Williams, went 25 of 34 for a career-high 268 yards.
It was a mismatch in everything but the scoreboard. Chicago ran 89 plays to New York's 32, had 34 first downs to seven, out-gained the Jets 492 yards to 157 and held the ball for almost 43 minutes. The Bears did not punt once. The Jets went 0 for 7 on third down.
The big miss: the turnover battle
We said the Jets' defense was the one least likely to take the ball away: no interceptions all season. It took it away twice. Minkah Fitzpatrick stepped in front of Colston Loveland in the second quarter and picked off Bagent, ending what the AP called an NFL-record interception drought at 20 games. D'Andre Swift also lost a fumble.
The Jets gave the ball away zero times. Chicago lost the turnover battle 2-0 and still won by 11, which says more about the Bears' running game than about anything we wrote.
Miss: Geno's clean sheet
We said Chicago would intercept Smith and end his run of 102 passes without one. He threw only 15 more, completed eight for 119 yards, and none went to a Bear. His one big play was a 58-yard touchdown to Isaiah Williams with 9:16 left.
Regression needs throws to work with. The Jets ran 32 plays all day. “We’ve got to execute and do whatever we can to keep our defense off the field,” Smith said. “That’s a part of playing complementary football. I think we can do a lot better job in that area.”
Hits: the win and the cover
The line opened at Bears -8.5 and fell to -3.5 by Saturday on the Bagent news. We said the drop was too much. Chicago won by 11.
“When you have the discrepancy of 89 plays and 32 plays, it’s something we have to look at,” Jets coach Aaron Glenn said. Monangai put it plainer: “Toward the end of the game, if they don’t want to be out there anymore, you just keep running at them.”
What we are changing
Our own preview spotted it: “If Smith keeps it clean, reasons 1 and 2 go down together.” We printed that as the case against us and then made both calls anyway. That is one bet counted twice. When it lost, it lost twice.
From now on, the three reasons in a preview have to be able to fail separately. If two calls hang on the same play, we keep the stronger one and find a different second reason.
