Follow-up · Panthers 32, Lions 26
We said Carolina ran out of corners. Detroit ran out of stops.
We picked Detroit to win by 4 or more against a Panthers secondary missing both starting corners. Carolina won 32-26, Goff threw one touchdown, and only our sack call landed. One hit, three misses.
With Vegas
Vegas favorsDET -3.5
Our pickDetroit beats Carolina.
Opened DET -3.5 TueNow DET -4 Sun
Panthers 32, Lions 26
Grading the preview: Carolina's secondary is gone. Sunday night could get ugly.
The calls, graded
- MissDetroit beats Carolina.Carolina won 32-26. Detroit, a 3.5-point favourite, lost outright.
- MissDetroit wins by 4 or more points.Detroit lost by 6, so it did not win by 4 or more.
- MissJared Goff throws at least 2 touchdown passes.Goff threw for 412 yards and one touchdown, an 8-yarder to Sam LaPorta.
- HitDetroit sacks Bryce Young at least 3 times.Detroit sacked Bryce Young 3 times for 11 yards: one each by Christian Izien, Alim McNeill and DJ Wonnum.
The result
Carolina beat Detroit 32-26 on Sunday night. Both teams are 2-2.
Bryce Young went 29 of 41 for 329 yards and two touchdowns, both to Tetairoa McMillan. McMillan caught 14 passes for a career-high 192 yards. Chuba Hubbard ran 20 times for 122 yards and two more. After punting on its first drive, Carolina scored on six straight possessions.
Detroit had the ball at its own 13 with 2:12 left, down six. Goff could not get a first down, and Young knelt twice to end it.
The big miss: the pick
We picked Detroit, with Vegas and our own model, and said the half point over 3.5 was easy. Detroit lost by 6. That is a miss on the pick and a miss on the margin, one game, two calls.
We built the case on Carolina's missing corners. Detroit did throw on them: Goff had 412 yards, Jameson Williams had 102 and Isaac TeSlaa 95. But the run we said Detroit could lean on never came. Jahmyr Gibbs had 46 yards on 15 carries, and the Lions ran for 46 as a team. Carolina ran for 127.
“We got ourselves in a hole there, which is frustrating,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said. “At the end of the day, we had our opportunities. Our defense came up with a stop and we had the ball with about with two minutes left to go win the game. And we just couldn’t get it done.”
Miss: Goff's two touchdowns
We asked for his floor. He threw for 412 yards and still did not reach it. His one touchdown was an 8-yard throw to Sam LaPorta with 3:38 left. Jake Bates kicked four field goals: 54, 43, 41 and 26 yards. Four drives that reached field-goal range ended without a touchdown. Goff threw no interceptions, his fourth straight game without one.
Hit: three sacks
Detroit sacked Young three times, for 11 yards. Christian Izien, Alim McNeill and DJ Wonnum got one each. Aidan Hutchinson, who came in with 3.5, had two quarterback hits and no sack. A sack ended Carolina's last real drive and forced a punt, which gave Detroit its final chance.
Three sacks did not slow the rest. Young completed his first 11 passes.
The case against us was right
The preview said Detroit's defense leaks: 30, 41 and 24 points allowed, and 979 passing yards in three games. It allowed 32 points and 329 passing yards. We printed that and picked Detroit anyway.
Carolina was missing more than corners. Xavier Legette was on injured reserve and Jalen Coker was inactive with a quad injury, so Young threw to McMillan 16 times. “I know what kind of player he is. He's special,” Young said. “I always trust him.”
What we are changing
All three of our reasons were about Detroit's offense against Carolina's injuries. None was about the thing our own case against named: Detroit's defense. When the case against us is that specific, one of the reasons has to answer it with a call of its own, so the record shows whether we were right to dismiss it.
