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Seat forecast · the 2026 board

You don’t get to pick your pick.

Set your league below and this is the team ADP hands you from that seat: you take the best player left every time, the other teams reach about 8 picks either way,15 rounds. “Lands” is how often each player is really yours rather than yours this once — the share of 100 more rooms like this one in which he ends up on your team.

Your pick

Board as of 2026-09-19. Past seasons are in the time machine. Make the picks yourself in Mock Draft

100 drafts of this room, from seat 5. Every Lands figure below is a count out of these 100 — one dot each.

Your team

2008projected starter points5 of 10your seatYour picks: 5, 16, 25, 36, 45, 56, 65, 76, 85, 96, 105, 116, 125, 136, 145

SlotThe starting spot this player fills. BN is the bench.PlayerName, position and NFL team, as the board lists him.ByeThe week his team does not play. A dash means the board has no bye on file.ProjProjected season points under this league's scoring rules.ADPAverage draft position: where the market takes him, averaged over many real drafts.TakenThe overall pick this seat took him at, with the round and pick within it in small type, then how many picks later (+) or earlier (−) than his ADP.LandsHow often he ends up on this seat's team across the extra drafts of the same room.
QBJalen HurtsQB · PHI1034558.3455.05 −137%
RBBijan RobinsonRB · ATL113253.251.05 +228%
RBSaquon BarkleyRB · PHI1024717.4162.06 −116%
WRNico CollinsWR · HOU826229.8253.05 −56%
WRDeVonta SmithWR · PHI1022941.7364.06 −615%
TETucker KraftTE · GB11174103.9859.05 −199%
W/R/TTerry McLaurinWR · WAS721482.1657.05 −1712%
KKa'imi FairbairnK · HOU8114134.812513.05 −105%
DEFDetroit LionsDEF698153.414515.05 −813%
BNBucky IrvingRB · TB1019772.5566.06 −1634%
BNLuther BurdenWR · CHI1020996.8768.06 −2126%
BNIsaiah LikelyTE · NYG8157112.79610.06 −174%
BNJosh JacobsRB · GB11139119.910511.05 −1517%
BNHarrison MevisK · LA11108130.111612.06 −148%
BNJalen CokerWR · CAR5166141.413614.06 −57%

The room

Every pick in the room, rounds down and teams across.
RdDraft round. Odd rounds run left to right, even rounds right to left: the snake.Team 1This seat’s picks. It follows ADP give or take a few picks, the way a real room does.Team 2This seat’s picks. It follows ADP give or take a few picks, the way a real room does.Team 3This seat’s picks. It follows ADP give or take a few picks, the way a real room does.Team 4This seat’s picks. It follows ADP give or take a few picks, the way a real room does.YouYour seat. It follows the strategy you chose exactly; only the room reaches.Team 6This seat’s picks. It follows ADP give or take a few picks, the way a real room does.Team 7This seat’s picks. It follows ADP give or take a few picks, the way a real room does.Team 8This seat’s picks. It follows ADP give or take a few picks, the way a real room does.Team 9This seat’s picks. It follows ADP give or take a few picks, the way a real room does.Team 10This seat’s picks. It follows ADP give or take a few picks, the way a real room does.
1T. McBrideTE −21J. Smith-NjigbaWR −4J. GibbsRB +1J. TaylorRB −4B. RobinsonRB +2P. NacuaWR 0J. ChaseWR +2A. St. BrownWR −1J. AllenQB −5C. LambWR −3
2A. JeantyRB −1O. HamptonRB −5L. JacksonQB −8D. AchaneRB 0S. BarkleyRB −1C. McCaffreyRB +6D. HenryRB −2J. LoveRB −16J. CookRB −1J. JeffersonWR −1
3D. LondonWR −3C. BrownRB −1M. NabersWR −15K. Walker IIIRB −2N. CollinsWR −5C. OlaveWR −5R. RiceWR −6J. WilliamsRB −13B. HallRB −11G. WilsonWR −11
4C. SkatteboRB −11C. LovelandTE −6T. McMillanWR −15Z. FlowersWR −9D. SmithWR −6T. WarrenTE −17K. WilliamsRB −11G. PickensWR +2B. BowersTE +2A. BrownWR −8
5E. EgbukaWR −12J. DanielsQB −9T. EtienneRB −10D. MayeQB −11J. HurtsQB −13L. McConkeyWR −16D. AdamsWR −12D. SwiftRB −11D. MooreWR −21HOUDEF −27
6S. LaPortaTE −20C. WilliamsQB −14B. AubreyK −19J. WaddleWR −17B. IrvingRB −16G. KittleTE −21Q. JudkinsRB −12D. MontgomeryRB −20T. HigginsWR −10J. BurrowQB −10
7D. PrescottQB −27M. EvansWR −25J. DartQB −18J. WilliamsWR −19T. McLaurinWR −17R. OdunzeWR −21B. TutenRB −15SEADEF −19T. KelceTE −33H. FanninTE −18
8B. PurdyQB −24T. LawrenceQB −28C. WatsonWR −24C. TateWR −27L. BurdenWR −21J. PriceRB −18R. StevensonRB −22K. PittsTE −15C. DickerK −26DENDEF −16
9D. MetcalfWR −20P. MahomesQB −18J. WarrenRB −29PITDEF −17T. KraftTE −19P. WashingtonWR −20T. HendersonRB −18C. SuttonWR −21M. Harrison Jr.WR −17LADEF −21
10K. GainwellRB −22C. HubbardRB −19R. DowdleRB −28M. StaffordQB −21I. LikelyTE −17T. PollardRB −17M. PittmanWR −16J. MyersK −16D. GoedertTE −16J. HerbertQB −17
11S. DiggsWR −15D. KincaidTE −26W. RobinsonWR −23B. NixQB −16J. JacobsRB −15J. BrooksRB −20M. WilsonWR −19BALDEF −19D. SamuelWR −29K. MonangaiRB −22
12C. LittleK −13M. LloydRB −11J. GoffQB −26A. JonesRB −15H. MevisK −14B. Thomas Jr.WR −20PHIDEF −20C. GodwinWR −27A. PierceWR −18M. GoldenWR −19
13M. AndrewsTE −16J. MeyersWR −11J. FergusonTE −10J. DobbinsRB −10K. FairbairnK −10K. MurrayQB −25H. ButkerK −17M. LemonWR −20J. Croskey-MerrittRB −17Q. JohnstonWR −20
14J. ReedWR −10NEDEF −14J. MasonRB −20E. PineiroK −9J. CokerWR −5C. McLaughlinK −33T. ShoughQB −17J. AddisonWR −7R. WhiteRB −7R. HarveyRB −13
15SFDEF −17J. BatesK −15KCDEF −12H. HenryTE −17DETDEF −8GBDEF −22T. HockensonTE −10B. MayfieldQB −7MINDEF −19T. LoopK −8

The small number beside a pick is how many picks later (+) or earlier (−) he went than his ADP. “Lands” is how often this player ends up on your team across 100 more drafts from this seat with the same rules. Draft 20260910. Projections and ADP from the 2026 board as of 2026-09-19.

Every seat in this room

Same board, same opponents, same draw — only the seat differs. Seat 5 projects 2008, seat 10 projects 1819: an 189-point spread nobody chose, handed out before anyone drafted. Draft it again and the spread changes with the room — over the first twelve rooms from this seat it ran from 100 points to 293.

So here is the questionYour seat was assigned. Can you draft your way out of it?We ran the 2025 season 1,000 times from every seat, four different ways, and scored every roster against what actually happened. Three of those ways tried to be clever.Show me what happened

The research · 2025 · 10 teams · 1,000 drafts a seat

Two of the three clever ideas were worth nothing

The same simulated room, run a thousand times from every seat over the 2025 season, then scored against what actually happened. One of the three even cost points. Seat 5 is shown below.

What the experiment found

The same drafts were run four ways from every seat. The question was whether knowing who will still be there at your next pick is worth points. It is not. What is worth points is plainer than that.

Timing alone−25.9 pts / season±2.1, 95 times in 100

Waiting on a position because its best player will probably survive to your next pick. It loses. The player almost never survives.

Never reaching+66.3 pts / season±6.7, 95 times in 100

Following ADP exactly, versus following it the way everyone else does: a few picks early or late at random. This is discipline, not insight.

Starters first+69.2 pts / season±3.9, 95 times in 100

Filling all nine starting spots before touching the bench. The biggest number on the page, and the one to trust least; see below.

Each way of drafting, measured against following ADP with ordinary reaching. The dot is the average gain in points per season; the whiskers are the range the answer sits in 95 times out of 100.ADP+20+40+60+80+100+120Never reachTiming aloneTiming + starters first
Points per season against plain ADP, over 1,000 drafts from every seat. The whiskers are narrow because drafts were resampled many times; they say nothing about a different season.

Why waiting does not work

The share of the time the best player still on the board survives until this team's next pick, by round.0%25%50%18%117%217%318%417%517%618%718%817%918%1017%1118%1217%1317%1416%15
Whoever is best on the board when you pick is gone by your next turn more than four times in five, in every round. That is why timing alone bought nothing: the player you were waiting for was almost never there.

When each position fills from seat 5

For each position, the round in which this seat first drafts it: a bar from the earliest typical round to the latest, with the average marked.13579111315QBround 7.8RBround 2.4WRround 2.2TEround 8.1Kround 14.1DEFround 13.6
Round each position first joins the roster, across every draft from this seat. The bar runs from the round it happened by in the earliest tenth of drafts to the round in the latest tenth; the dot is the average. Kicker and defense land late by rule: the model takes them only once it must.

What seat 5 takes each round

Share of seat 5's picks by position, round by round.0%50%100%12345678910111213141516
  • QB
  • RB
  • WR
  • TE
  • K
  • DEF
Each bar is one round of your draft, split by the position you took. Read down a bar for the odds; read across for the shape of the whole draft.
The same figure as a table
RoundQBRBWRTEKDEF
11%50%49%0%0%0%
210%37%47%6%0%0%
318%40%30%12%0%0%
422%30%39%9%0%0%
57%39%47%8%0%0%
65%28%52%15%0%0%
713%25%52%10%0%0%
86%23%48%23%0%0%
98%27%47%16%0%1%
1014%38%27%4%6%10%
1117%32%14%14%5%18%
1213%23%25%23%10%7%
1312%16%36%6%13%17%
1410%17%17%10%22%25%
1517%18%18%14%27%6%
1612%6%8%9%30%35%
The rest of the experiment — who keeps landing on this seat, and what every seat takes round by round

Who keeps landing on seat 5

The 40 players most often on this seat's roster and the round they usually arrive. No one is here more than a fraction of the time: the model spreads rosters widely, and so does a real room.

  1. Cam Skattebo RB14%r10.6
  2. Zay Flowers WR14%r6.2
  3. Jake Bates K13%r12.3
  4. Keenan Allen WR13%r14.4
  5. Keon Coleman WR13%r12.5
  6. Jameson Williams WR13%r6.7
  7. Xavier Worthy WR12%r6.1
  8. Baker Mayfield QB12%r6.8
  9. Cam Little K12%r14.1
  10. Drake London WR12%r2.2
  11. George Pickens WR12%r6.6
  12. Bijan Robinson RB12%r1.0
  13. Marvin Harrison WR12%r4.6
  14. RJ Harvey RB12%r6.7
  15. Deebo Samuel WR12%r8.3
  16. Alvin Kamara RB12%r4.0
  17. Garrett Wilson WR12%r4.2
  18. Tetairoa McMillan WR12%r6.6
  19. Michael Pittman WR12%r12.3
  20. Lamar Jackson QB12%r2.7
  21. Justin Herbert QB12%r10.8
  22. Josh Allen QB11%r2.3
  23. Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR11%r3.5
  24. Kenneth Walker RB11%r4.8
  25. Brandon Aubrey K11%r10.3
  26. Jordan Love QB11%r14.5
  27. Joe Burrow QB11%r3.9
  28. Tank Bigsby RB11%r14.5
  29. Mike Evans WR11%r4.3
  30. Mark Andrews TE11%r7.8
  31. Quinshon Judkins RB11%r8.8
  32. Jonnu Smith TE11%r14.4
  33. Younghoe Koo K11%r15.9
  34. Saquon Barkley RB11%r1.0
  35. Jakobi Meyers WR11%r8.8
  36. Kyler Murray QB11%r9.7
  37. Jaylen Warren RB11%r10.0
  38. Jordan Mason RB11%r10.7
  39. Dalton Kincaid TE11%r11.9
  40. Justin Jefferson WR11%r1.1

Every seat, following ADP

Position taken by round when following ADP, across every seat.0%50%100%12345678910111213141516
  • QB
  • RB
  • WR
  • TE
  • K
  • DEF
Quarterbacks and tight ends trickle in across the middle rounds.
The same figure as a table
RoundQBRBWRTEKDEF
11%49%49%0%0%0%
211%38%46%5%0%0%
319%37%33%12%0%0%
420%31%39%10%0%0%
57%37%47%8%0%0%
66%31%49%14%0%0%
711%27%50%12%0%0%
87%25%48%20%0%0%
99%27%47%15%0%1%
1014%34%32%5%5%9%
1117%31%17%15%5%16%
1215%25%23%21%8%9%
1312%16%33%8%14%17%
1411%18%19%10%19%24%
1516%18%16%14%27%9%
1610%5%8%10%33%34%

Every seat, starters first

Position taken by round under starters-first, across every seat.0%50%100%12345678910111213141516
  • QB
  • RB
  • WR
  • TE
  • K
  • DEF
The tight end arrives in round six and the quarterback in round seven, because those are the starting spots still open.
The same figure as a table
RoundQBRBWRTEKDEF
10%45%55%0%0%0%
22%44%54%0%0%0%
315%35%37%13%0%0%
427%27%29%16%0%0%
53%45%42%10%0%0%
611%25%25%38%0%0%
741%14%17%28%0%0%
85%26%50%18%0%0%
98%27%47%15%0%1%
1014%34%32%5%5%9%
1117%31%17%15%5%16%
1215%25%23%21%8%9%
1312%16%34%8%13%17%
1410%20%22%9%17%22%
1511%23%22%10%25%9%
164%6%12%2%38%38%

What this does not establish

THERE WAS ONE 2025. Seeds resample DRAFTS, which are genuinely random; they do not resample player outcomes, which happened once. Every interval is an interval over draft variation at fixed 2025 outcomes and says nothing about 2026. The arms are paired on seed and slot, NOT on opponent rosters. Survival is estimated under the SAME opponent model the draft is run with (adp + N(0, spread)), so it is model-consistent and is not a claim about how real managers draft; the intervening picks ignore the opponents' own last-chance positional rule and every row beyond the window. The horizon is one step. The chooser is noiseless, and marketVsAdp is what prices that on its own. The forecast is the model's expectation for a market-following seat, not a prediction of any real room. No waivers, no trades, no in-season movement.

Every number in this section is read from config/calibration/availability-experiment-2025.json, built 2026-09-03 at 4bc2275, ruleset 6859e59ffbe5. Opponents draft adp + N(0, spread) with spread 8; the lookahead used 64 replicates over a window of 40. The tool above drafts the current board with the same engine and the same spread.